Contemporary Middle-East by Ambassador Sanjay Singh

On 23rd February 2021, NIAS conducted a seminar on ‘Contemporary Middle-East’ in collaboration with the Department of International Studies, Political Science and History, CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Kristu Jayanti (Department of History), Pondicherry University (Centre for Maritime Studies), Goa University (Department of Political Science), and Manipal Academy of Higher Education (Department of Geopolitics and International Relations). The speaker for this seminar was Retired Ambassador Sanjay Singh. Amb Sanjay Singh held charge in the Ministry as Joint Secretary and Additional Secretary (Gulf) from March 2005 to March 2009. He was India’s Ambassador to Iran from March 2009 to March 2011. He took over as Secretary (East) in the Ministry of External Affairs in March 2011 and retired at the end of April 2013. Dr Rahul Tripathi, HOD, Department of Political Science, Goa University gave the welcome address and introduced the speaker. The Ambassador, in his lecture, spoke on the following broad topics: Covid-19 and economic slowdown in the region, key features of the regional situation, the policy of the Biden Administration towards this region in comparison to his predecessor, tensions in the Persian Gulf, sanctions on Iran and the JCPOA, the Abraham Accords, change in the US posture vis-à-vis Palestine under Biden administration, Conflict in Libya, Syria and Yemen, and Lebanon’s difficulties. Covid-19 has had a devastating impact on this region, where 8.3 million people were infected with the virus. Countries in the region have begun their vaccination drives with Israel using the Pfizer vaccine and Iran, the Sputnik V. The spread of the pandemic had exacerbated the global and the regional economy and the slowdown has reduced the off-take of oil and gas from the region and depressed the prices. Although the oil prices have gradually recovered, this is not enough to meet the budgetary demands of the Oil Producing countries in the region. IMF estimates that the loss faced by the countries in the region during the pandemic will amount to $270 million. It has also predicted in January of this year that the economy of the MENA region will further contract by 3%, thus, putting stress on the already fragile region. 2021 marks the 10th anniversary of the Arab Spring with the region witnessing no progressive change. Even in Tunisia, the political reforms are still a work in progress, and the economic conditions are worse than under President Ben Ali. Some of the underlying causes related to poverty, climate change and desertification, droughts, high population growth and unemployment remain largely unaddressed according to the Ambassador. The key features of the regional situation are that there are sectarian violence, extremism and terrorist violence. The region is confronted by daunting socio-economic and political challenges and is undergoing major transformations. The Arab Spring has considerably de-stabilized the region; there is continuing violence in Libya, Syria and Yemen and Iraq; the Palestinian-Israeli conundrum; deepening divide between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the schism within the political Islam, the counter-productive actions by Turkey and Israel; the intervention of great powers like the US, China and Russia; proliferation of extremist groups and; non-traditional threats like droughts, environmental degradation, terrorism, piracy and their effect on the major sea lanes; drug and human trafficking in North Africa. Despite the shale revolution in the US, the country still continues to be involved in the region. The US still the main security provider in the region with bases in Diego Garcia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar etc. The Trump era saw the US tilt towards Israel in the region and the administration also developed a close relationship with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Under Biden administration, Israel was not seen as a top priority and President Biden engaged the King of Saudi Arabia and not the Crown Prince after taking Office last month. The US which is faced by the domestic challenges posed by the pandemic is likely to be less involved in the region. The Biden Administration has already reversed many of the decisions made by President Trump. President Biden has reversed the ban on people coming from some of the countries from the region, the sale of arms to Saudi Arabia is on hold, bringing back Obama Era officials to the Biden Administration, delisting Houthis as a terrorist group and the emphasis on the 2-state solution. The Ambassador spoke at length on the tensions in the Persian Gulf, the future of the JCPOA and the Abraham Accords. He believes that there will not be a drastic change in the Biden Administration’s Policy in the Middle-East. Conflict situation in Libya, Syria and Yemen were also discussed along with the politics in Lebanon, Turkey and Egypt. Ambassador Sanjay Singh also threw light upon the strategic and security interests of India in the region which include fighting terrorism and extremism; economic interests - trade and energy; the presence of a large pool of Indian expatriate and their wellbeing; religious and cultural ties to the region. The session then moved into the Q&A session which was moderated by Dr Manoharan N, Associate Professor, Department of International Studies, Political Science and History, CHRIST (Deemed to be University), who also delivered the concluding remarks. The Vote of Thanks was delivered by Ms Ramya B, HOD, Department of History, Kristu Jayanti College. Report by Yaqoob Saleem 4 MAIS