The Centre for East Asian Studies of the Department of International Studies, Political Science and History held a guest lecture on 30 September, 2022, on the topic "China’s Rise: Peaceful Transition or Inevitable Conflict?". The guest speaker for the day was Dr. Jonathan Schwartz, Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the State University of New York.
The emcee of the lecture was Aishwarya Nair from 3MAIS. Dr. Manoharan N introduced the speaker, Dr. Jonathan Schwartz, to the audience. The speaker began by engaging the students and gave two questions for the students to think about throughout the lecture: why the students feel like they disagree with the speaker’s arguments, and what would be the most sensible for India in this position
He then continued to address the topic of “China’s Rise: Peaceful Transition or Inevitable Conflict?” by beginning with a brief talk about the world order and the problems in it, and how there is a possible potential for the transition of the world order. The speaker began the lecture by giving an outline of the planned lecture.
Beginning with the question of ‘Is China’s rise inevitable? If so, will it result in violent conflict?’, and focusing on the importance of China-US relations by giving two quotes from Swaine, Richard Nixon and Liu Mingfu’s ‘The China Dream’. He then proceeded with sub-questions about the inevitability of growing tensions, whether the US should simply fade away or should US and China be in a harmonious relationship.
The speaker used the Power Transition Theory from the school of Realism. Explaining the theory to the students, he then connected it with China’s rise in power. He focused on the logic of transitions, where a challenger state moves up in the hierarchy against a dominant state, and the conditions to challenge the hegemonic, dominant state: being a 2nd ranked power in demographic and geographic terms, strong economic growth, dissatisfied with existing world order, offers an alternative world order. He then compared the statuses of China and the US on these four parameters, checking off all points fulfilled. He also spoke about the alternative Chinese model of Tian Xia, or ‘under the heaven’.
He then shifted to the US’ interests in the world order: maintaining US global leadership and world order, maintaining healthy and free trade in a global economy, and security from attack. He also spoke about China’s interests: domestic stability, return to past global stature, a world safe for China’s growth, and resolving border disputes favourable.
He then turned the focus to the options moving forward: favouring containment or, reintegration, and spoke on both aspects. He also brought in the idea of China’s rise being irrelevant, speaking about Susan Shirk’s idea of China as a fragile superpower, considering its domestic challenges. He also added the perspective of Joseph Nye to his lecture as well.
He finally gave two questions for the students to ponder over as they went ahead with the Q&A session: whether the conclusions drawn from power transition theory and how it can be challenged, and the best path forward for India. The students enthusiastically engaged the speaker with questions about the need for subaltern theories when considering India’s position and role, and the need to focus on environment, which the speaker answered.
The Vote of Thanks was delivered by Niharika of 3MAIS, followed by which the speaker was presented with a memento by Dr. Vinod MJ. The session was helpful for the students to understand the various perspectives existing about China's rise, and the implications of this rise for other world players as well.
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